@base <https://aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-be-scarce> .
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@prefix owl: <https://www.w3.org/2002/07/owl#> .

<#article> a schema:Article ;
  schema:headline "What will be scarce?"@en ;
  schema:name "What will be scarce?"@en ;
  schema:alternativeHeadline "The economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work"@en ;
  schema:datePublished "2026-04-14" ;
  schema:inLanguage "en" ;
  schema:url <https://aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-be-scarce> ;
  schema:publisher <#ghosts-of-electricity> ;
  schema:author <#alex-imas> ;
  schema:about
    <#advanced-ai>,
    <#structural-change>,
    <#commodity-form>,
    <#post-commodity-economy>,
    <#relational-sector>,
    <#income-elasticity>,
    <#nonhomothetic-demand>,
    <#baumols-cost-disease>,
    <#mimetic-desire>,
    <#labor-reallocation>,
    <#services-sector>,
    <#developing-world-risk> ;
  schema:articleSection
    "From farms to factories to..."@en,
    "The relational sector and desire"@en ;
  schema:abstract """The article argues that if advanced AI makes commodity production cheap, economic scarcity will shift away from standardized goods and toward relational, provenance-rich, human-intensive goods and services."""@en ;
  schema:articleBody """Alex Imas argues that advanced AI may automate a large share of commodity production without eliminating human labor altogether. The key claim is that as automation lowers the cost of standardized goods and raises real income, demand shifts toward sectors with high income elasticity where the human element remains part of the value proposition. Drawing on structural-change economics, Baumol's cost disease, nonhomothetic demand, and mimetic desire, the essay proposes a post-commodity economy in which labor reallocates into a relational sector centered on experience, exclusivity, provenance, and social meaning. The article contrasts this with the simpler view that machines merely replace labor one-for-one, and emphasizes that the transition will likely look different in rich economies than in developing economies built on commodity production for export."""@en ;
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    <#part-starbucks>,
    <#part-commodity-form>,
    <#part-structural-change>,
    <#part-income-effects>,
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    <#part-developing-world> ;
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    <#herbert-simon>,
    <#rene-girard>,
    <#joachim-hubmer>,
    <#diego-comin>,
    <#danial-lashkari>,
    <#marti-mestieri> .

<#ghosts-of-electricity> a schema:Blog ;
  schema:name "Ghosts of Electricity"@en ;
  schema:url <https://aleximas.substack.com/> ;
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  schema:name "Alex Imas"@en ;
  schema:url <https://aleximas.substack.com/> ;
  schema:affiliation <#ghosts-of-electricity> .

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  schema:name "Starbucks"@en ;
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  schema:name "Brian Niccol"@en ;
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<#advanced-ai> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Advanced AI"@en ;
  schema:description """The article's background assumption that increasingly capable machine systems may drive the marginal cost of many forms of production toward very low levels."""@en .

<#structural-change> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Structural change"@en ;
  schema:description """The economic process in which major productivity changes in one sector reallocate labor and expenditure toward other sectors with different demand properties."""@en .

<#commodity-form> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Commodity form"@en ;
  schema:description """The article's term for goods whose value is detached from the specific person who made them and can therefore be standardized, scaled, and reproduced widely."""@en .

<#post-commodity-economy> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Post-commodity economy"@en ;
  schema:description """The projected economic regime in which a larger share of spending goes to goods and services whose value remains inseparable from the human who provides them."""@en .

<#relational-sector> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Relational sector"@en ;
  schema:description """The human-intensive, provenance-rich part of the economy where experience, identity, status, exclusivity, and direct human involvement are part of the product's value."""@en .

<#income-elasticity> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Income elasticity"@en ;
  schema:description """The article's key demand concept: some sectors capture a larger share of spending as people become richer because demand for them rises faster than income."""@en .

<#nonhomothetic-demand> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Nonhomothetic demand"@en ;
  schema:description """The idea that households do not simply buy proportionally more of everything as income rises, but instead shift spending toward qualitatively different sectors."""@en .

<#baumols-cost-disease> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Baumol's cost disease"@en ;
  schema:description """The tendency for relatively hard-to-automate sectors to become more expensive and economically prominent as productivity in other sectors rises more quickly."""@en .

<#mimetic-desire> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Mimetic desire"@en ;
  schema:description """The relational theory of desire associated with Rene Girard in which people value goods partly because others value them, especially when exclusivity and status are involved."""@en .

<#labor-reallocation> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Labor reallocation"@en ;
  schema:description """The article's claim that workers shift out of automated commodity production and into sectors where human participation remains economically valuable."""@en .

<#services-sector> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Services-sector ascent"@en ;
  schema:description """The historical pattern used by the article as analogy: agriculture shrinks, manufacturing rises and falls, and services expand as productivity and incomes grow."""@en .

<#developing-world-risk> a schema:DefinedTerm ;
  schema:name "Developing-world commodity risk"@en ;
  schema:description """The article's warning that economies built on producing commodities for richer countries may face a harder transition than developed economies."""@en .

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  schema:name "David Autor"@en .

<#neil-thompson> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Neil Thompson"@en .

<#herbert-simon> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Herbert Simon"@en ;
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  schema:name "Rene Girard"@en ;
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<#joachim-hubmer> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Joachim Hubmer"@en .

<#diego-comin> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Diego Comin"@en .

<#danial-lashkari> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Danial Lashkari"@en .

<#marti-mestieri> a schema:Person ;
  schema:name "Marti Mestieri"@en .

<#defined-terms> a schema:DefinedTermSet ;
  schema:name "Defined terms for What will be scarce?"@en ;
  schema:hasPart
    <#advanced-ai>,
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<#part-starbucks> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "Starbucks as the opening puzzle"@en ;
  schema:position 1 ;
  schema:about <#starbucks>, <#relational-sector> ;
  schema:text """The essay opens by arguing that Starbucks rolled back some automation because hospitality, seating, and handwritten touches increased customer satisfaction and time spent in cafes."""@en .

<#part-commodity-form> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "Commodity production and alienation"@en ;
  schema:position 2 ;
  schema:about <#commodity-form> ;
  schema:text """The article explains industrialization as the separation of products from the people who make them, turning craft into standardized commodity production."""@en .

<#part-structural-change> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "Historical structural change"@en ;
  schema:position 3 ;
  schema:about <#structural-change>, <#services-sector>, <#baumols-cost-disease> ;
  schema:text """The article uses agriculture, manufacturing, and services to show how productivity shocks reallocate labor and spending rather than simply eliminating output demand."""@en .

<#part-income-effects> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "Income effects over price effects"@en ;
  schema:position 4 ;
  schema:about <#income-elasticity>, <#nonhomothetic-demand> ;
  schema:text """The essay highlights Comin, Lashkari, and Mestieri's result that most structural change is driven by income effects rather than price effects alone."""@en .

<#part-relational-sector> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "The relational sector and mimetic desire"@en ;
  schema:position 5 ;
  schema:about <#relational-sector>, <#mimetic-desire>, <#post-commodity-economy> ;
  schema:text """The article proposes that richer households demand more human-intensive goods and services because social meaning, status, and provenance become increasingly valuable."""@en .

<#part-developing-world> a schema:WebPageElement ;
  schema:name "A harder transition for poorer countries"@en ;
  schema:position 6 ;
  schema:about <#developing-world-risk> ;
  schema:text """The article says the framework fits developed economies better and may imply more painful outcomes for poorer countries built around commodity export production."""@en .

<#argument-howto> a schema:HowTo ;
  schema:name "How the article builds its argument"@en ;
  schema:about <#structural-change>, <#relational-sector>, <#mimetic-desire> ;
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  schema:description """The essay advances from an automation puzzle, to historical structural-change theory, to a behavioral demand mechanism, and finally to a labor-market prediction."""@en .

<#step-1> a schema:HowToStep ;
  schema:name "Start with a real automation puzzle"@en ;
  schema:position 1 ;
  schema:text "The article begins with Starbucks to show that some automation can lower rather than raise perceived value when relational elements matter."@en ;
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<#step-2> a schema:HowToStep ;
  schema:name "Use structural-change history as the baseline"@en ;
  schema:position 2 ;
  schema:text "The essay turns to agriculture, manufacturing, and services to show that productivity shocks typically reallocate labor across sectors."@en ;
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<#step-3> a schema:HowToStep ;
  schema:name "Add nonhomothetic demand and mimetic desire"@en ;
  schema:position 3 ;
  schema:text "The article argues that rising income shifts demand toward goods and services where exclusivity, status, and human provenance matter."@en ;
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<#step-4> a schema:HowToStep ;
  schema:name "Predict a post-commodity labor shift"@en ;
  schema:position 4 ;
  schema:text "The final claim is that AI shrinks commodity sectors as shares of GDP while employment and spending rise in the relational sector."@en ;
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<#faq-1> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What does the article say will remain scarce in an AI-rich economy?"@en ;
  schema:text "What does the article say will remain scarce in an AI-rich economy?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-1-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-1-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "The article says scarcity shifts toward relational, provenance-rich, and status-laden goods and services where human involvement is part of the value."@en ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .

<#faq-2> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "Why does Starbucks matter in the argument?"@en ;
  schema:text "Why does Starbucks matter in the argument?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-2-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-2-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It serves as the opening example that more automation does not always increase value because hospitality and human touches can raise demand."@en ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .

<#faq-3> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What is the commodity form in this essay?"@en ;
  schema:text "What is the commodity form in this essay?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-3-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-3-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It is the form of production in which value lies in the standardized product itself rather than in the person who made it."@en ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .

<#faq-4> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "How does the article use structural change?"@en ;
  schema:text "How does the article use structural change?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-4-answer> ;
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<#faq-4-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It uses structural change to argue that automation usually shifts labor and expenditure across sectors rather than simply eliminating economic activity."@en ;
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<#faq-5> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What role does income elasticity play?"@en ;
  schema:text "What role does income elasticity play?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-5-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-5-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "The article argues that higher-income-elasticity sectors gain economic share as automation makes people effectively richer."@en ;
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<#faq-6> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What does nonhomothetic demand mean here?"@en ;
  schema:text "What does nonhomothetic demand mean here?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-6-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-6-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It means households do not buy proportionally more of everything as income rises, but instead redirect spending toward different kinds of goods and services."@en ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .

<#faq-7> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "Why does mimetic desire matter to the thesis?"@en ;
  schema:text "Why does mimetic desire matter to the thesis?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-7-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-7-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "Because the article says status, exclusivity, and social meaning make human-linked goods harder to satiate and therefore more income-elastic."@en ;
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<#faq-8> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What is the relational sector?"@en ;
  schema:text "What is the relational sector?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-8-answer> ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .
<#faq-8-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It is the human-intensive part of the economy where the value of a good or service depends partly on who provided it and how."@en ;
  schema:isPartOf <#article> .

<#faq-9> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "Does the article claim labor share must rise?"@en ;
  schema:text "Does the article claim labor share must rise?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-9-answer> ;
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<#faq-9-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "No. The article says labor share could fall overall while labor remains economically important through sectoral reallocation into relational activities."@en ;
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<#faq-10> a schema:Question ;
  schema:name "What warning does the article give about developing economies?"@en ;
  schema:text "What warning does the article give about developing economies?"@en ;
  schema:acceptedAnswer <#faq-10-answer> ;
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<#faq-10-answer> a schema:Answer ;
  schema:text "It warns that economies built on commodity production for richer countries may face a more difficult and more worrying transition than developed economies."@en ;
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